Vulnerability To Future Disturbance


The vulnerability to future disturbance is determined by dynamic factors that drive landuse change; principally market demand, new technologies or climatic shifts.

Equally important are the constraints to landuse change; such as the intrinsic and static nature of the landscape itself, the soils and topography, and the social dynamic of tenure.

All factors have, are, and will continue to interact, changing both rapidly and slowly over decades. Only tenure, the critical social control of landuse, was considered here; and for both the ILZ and ELZ combined.

The assessment was focused on tenure vulnerability and was based on the relative distribution of the area of each landcover type between the tenure types set out in Table 4. The six tenures listed in this Table offer different levels of protection against future disturbance ranging from none, with Freehold, to total protection with Conservation tenure. A numeric measure was computed as the mean of the sum of the products of the percentage area in each of the six tenure classes of Table 4 and their protection ratings (0-5). Based on this value, a vulnerability rating and score was arbitrarily but plausibly set as low (* , > 50% protected), moderate (** , 25-50% protected), and high (*** , < 25% protected).


Table 15: The distribution of relative area (%) of the six tenure levels for all landcover types within the ILZ and ELZ. The score was based on the mean sum of the products of the percentage areas and the tenure protection ratings that are lowest with tenure type 1 and highest with tenure type 6.

                                 Tenure type                                                             
          1         2          3         4          5         6          Score     
_______________________________________________________________________________

xTML4     40        6          25        3          4         23         **        

eTML3     49        9          23        10         0         10         ***       

wTML3     71        27         1         1          0         1          ***       

xTML3     65        13         9         5          0         7          ***       

eM2       52        26         4         8          7         4          ***       

wM2       20        80         0         0          0         0          ***       

xM2       53        18         22        7          0         0          ***       

eL2       23        47         2         19         3         6          **        

wL2       36        39         1         7          9         8          ***       

xL2       9         77         1         6          2         5          ***       

eM1       40        58         1         0          0         1          ***       

eL1       3         51         2         18         21        6          **        

wL1       12        69         1         2          7         9          **        

xL1       7         43         1         33         12        4          **        

eS3       98        0          1         0          0         2          ***       

wS3       35        28         1         1          28        8          **        

xS3       39        2          1         0          50        8          **        

eS2       43        16         1         5          12        23         **        

wS2       0         64         1         15         15        4          **        

xS2       52        22         1         1          7         17         ***       

eS1       12        28         2         32         18        7          **        

wS1       1         32         1         31         28        6          **        

xS1       1         76         1         6          7         9          **        

xZ3       27        19         9         12         3         31         **        

xZ2       6         65         1         6          11        10         **        

wZ1       2         95         0         2          0         1          ***       

xH2       0         49         1         20         15        14         **        

xG4       12        26         6         43         0         13         **        

xG3       45        47         4         1          1         1          ***       

xG2       2         95         0         0          0         3          ***       

Littoral  5         56         2         22         9         5          **        

xG1       0         79         1         6          0         13         **        

xF1       0         84         0         0          0         16         **